More Ashes action gets under way tomorrow at Lord’s and that means more Ashes betting tips from the Betting Maestro. Purely based on stats, here are some of interest.

 

Ashes betting Tips: Say no to the draw

The bookmakers have the draw priced at anything between 1.73 and a best price of 1.88 on the Betfair Exchange.

 

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With lots of rain forecast for Wednesday and some rain for the next few days after that, it looks nailed on that we won’t have enough overs in the game to force a result. Especially with Australia unlikely to be the ones forcing the issue after being 1-0 up. Right?

Maybe. Maybe not. After all, none of the last 19 Test matches in England have produced a stalemate. The last Ashes series in England didn’t have a draw either, ending 3-2.

It’s also worth pointing out that rain in the air is exactly the sort of thing that might further spice up what isn’t a particularly good wicket, at the best of times.

10 overs from a Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Stuart Broad or Chris Woakes could easily see three or four wickets fall and then it would really be ‘game on’. The 1.95 with Unibet that it’s either England or Australia winning, as opposed to a draw, looks pretty tasty.

 

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Smith and his numbers are getting out of control

Steve Smith is getting out of hand. We’ve discussed what a thorn in the side he is for England already but let’s just talk about his numbers against the ‘Auld Enemy’ in the Ashes in greater depth.

With 2312 runs, he’s the ninth highest Test runscorer in history for Australia against England but that doesn’t begin to tell the story.  All eight of the men in front of him, plus the 13 directly behind him, have played more Tests agsint England than Smith’s 24.

 

 

Of the eight in front of him, only Sir Don Bradman has a highest Test score against England; Bradman’s 334 plays Smith’s 239. Of those eight in front of him, only Steve Waugh can equal his ten centuries against the English. Bradman is admittedly streets ahead on 19, in this regard.

But the one that really stands out is the average. He averages 60 against ‘the Poms’. Of those eight ahead of him, only Allan Border and Steve Waugh are even in the 50s , let alone averaging 60. Again, Bradman’s numbers stick out like a sore thumb, scoring at an average of 89 against his rivals.

So what’s the conclusion here? Against England at least, Smith is the best Australian player since Bradman. And by some distance.

No wonder he’s just 5.0 to be man-of-the-match in the Second Test. That would be one of our more confident Ashes betting tips.

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Undercooked Archer unlikely to dish up punishment

If England are pinning their hopes on Jofra Archer, they’re asking a lot of the Sussex man.

He has played zero Test matches in his career and hasn’t played a First Class game for 11 months.

Since winning the World Cup with England one month ago to the day, he’s played just two T20 games for Sussex and a game for the Sussex Second XI.

Add a side injury to the equation and you’ll think he’ll do remarkably well to finish the Test match in one piece, let alone be England’s first innings top bowler at 3.5 with Betway.

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