One side is a value bet to finish rock bottom in Big Bash 9 on Betfair Sportsbook. Spoiler alert: it’s one of the Melbournes.

There are Big Bash tips here about the teams best equipped to win the 2018/19 edition and what characteristics the possible Big Bash Top batsman may have. But Big Bash betting isn’t all about winning. If you can make a decent profit by betting on these Big Bash tips on who finishes rock bottom, that’s just as satisfying.

So let’s work out where the value lies on the Betfair Sportsbook “To Finish Rock Bottom” market.

Big Bash Tips- Eliminating three straight away

We’ve already decided that these three teams tick most of the boxes you’d want from a potential winner and have a serious chance of winning it and are decent value to do so: the Perth Scorchers, the Adelaide Strikers and the Melbourne Stars. The Stars by the way, did finish rock bottom last season but after making serious changes to personnel, including the all-important two overseas players, we’re pretty confident they’ll seriously improve this time round.

So if they’re our Big Bash tips to go all the way, we can knock them off our list of teams who can fall flat on their faces. So that’s three gone, five to look at.

 

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Big Bash Tips- Getting rid of two more

The Betting Maestro isn’t massively keen on the Brisbane Heat, who are 15/2 to finish last. They don’t make our Big Bash tips of sides who have what it takes to make the semis or better, because they’re a side perfectly suited to chasing totals but not to defending them.

He’s a little past it but Brendon McCullum can still score very quickly on his day, Joe Burns and Alex Ross are steady hands in that middle-order, while big-hitting all-rounder Ben Cutting probably won’t come off more than once every six or seven innings but when he does, it tends to be in style. Then of course there’s Chris Lynn, arguably the best batsman in the league and a real candidate for Big Bash Top batsman honours.

The problem is that they just don’t have enough classy bowlers to defend par or sub-par totals. Youngster Mujeeb Ur-Rahman will be just fine and Mitchell Swepson is an under-rated player. Two good spin options but there’s not much beyond them. That said, their batting will bail them out more than that of other teams’ so they’re very unlikely to finish rock bottom.

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Big Bash Betting Tips- English pair could bail out the Thunder

Hobart can be dismissed as well. They did after all finish as runners-up last season and have players well suited to this league. D’Arcy Short was player of the tournament last year, George Bailey is a middle-order rock and they’ll have Tim Paine around when he’s done with Test duties, as he’s currently out of the ODI side. The enigmatic all-rounder James Faulkner may be better for a change of scenery (he left the Stars)  and Johan Botha has seen it all before so can provide some much-needed calm with the ball.

If they lose Jofra Archer (he may have to opt out of Big Bash duty to qualify to play or England) that would be a huge blow but that’s not reason enough to think they won’t have a decent campaign.

I’d be amazed if the Sydney Thunder made the semis. But rather like Brisbane, a top order of Shane Watson, Joe Root and Jos Buttler will get them out of a few holes. Callum Ferguson is a decent batsman and Fawad Ahmed will keep things tight as their chief spinner. Luckily for them, they won’t lose English pair Root and Buttler till the semis and that may just save them. Besides, you need to be really poor to be a 3/1 favourite and they’re not that bad.

Big Bash Betting Tips- Which of these two?

So it’s a straight choice between the Melbourne Renegades and the Sydney Sixers. It’s not an easy one. The odds don’t help us split them because they’re the same price at 4/1.

We’re going to back the Renegades. They’ll lose their most important player, most prolific batsman and skipper Aaron Finch for virtually the whole of the Big Bash, on Australia duty. Not to mention Marcus Harris, who’s currently partnering Finch at the top of the order in Test matches.

Mohammad Nabi is a great overseas player but we’ll have to see how the inexperienced Usman Khan Shinwari fares. Cameron White and Dan Christian were good Aussie ODI players but they’re certainly getting on a bit and there really isn’t a lot to like about the rest of the squad.

The other key factor here is how disappointing they tend to be…at home. Most teams tend to win at least 55% of their home games but they don’t.

The Sixers aren’t a great deal better but English duo Sam Curran and Joe Denly are solid overseas picks, Moises Henriques is a good captain and they’ll benefit from having Nathan Lyon around as he’s unlikely to feature in the ODIs. Sean Abbott will always get wickets and has bundles of Big Bash experience under his belt.

By all means consider backing both sides but if you’re going with just the one, then go with the Renegades.

 

In order to back the Renegades at 4/1 to finish Rock Bottom, you’ll first need to open a Betfair account. When you do, you can receive up to 100 GBP/Euros in free bets.

New customer offer. Place 5 x £/€10 or more bets to receive £/€20 in free bets.
Repeat up to 5 times to receive maximum £/€100 bonus. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). Exchange
bets excluded. T&Cs apply.

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