Analysis of the Big Bash top runscorer betting candidates, based on finding the perfect profile of a winner.

 

Big Bash Top Runscorer betting

 

Picking a Big Bash top runscorer is easier said than done. Eight teams and loads of batting talent means that there are at least 20 or so batsmen with a real chance of ending the season as the Big Bash top batsman. But if we analyse what happened in the past, we can give ourselves every chance of  picking players who can at least give us an each-way payout.

 

For the purposes of this study to find value in the Bish Bash top runscorer betting market, we’ll only look at winners from the past five editions. Not only is that enough of a study period but going back any longer than that and some of those players won’t be around anymore.

 

 

 

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Season Winner Team 2nd 3rd 4th
2018-19 D’Arcy Short Hobart Hurricanes Mathew Wade Marcus Stoinis Callum Ferguson
2017-18 D’Arcy Short Hobart Hurricanes Alex Carey Jake Weatherald Travis Head
2016-17 Ben Dunk Adelaide Strikers Aaron Finch Michael Klinger Brendon McCullum
2015-16 Chris Lynn Brisbane Heat Usman Khawaja Kevin Pietersen Michael Hussey
2014-15 Michael Klinger Perth Scorchers Kevin Pietersen Nic Maddison Jordan Silk

 

 

Aussies only, please

 

All of the last five top Big Bash batsmen were Australian. In fact, of the 20 making up the winners and those finishing in second, third or fourth, only Kevin Pietersen with two appearances, wasn’t Aussie.

It’s not that surprising for two reasons. One: there are obviously far more Australian batsmen than overseas ones. Two: they’re far more used to playing on those wickets and with those boundary dimensions than the overseas players.

 

Players to rule out: Alex Hales (17.0), David Miller (21.0), Liam Livingstone, James Vince (26.0).  

 

Big Bash player Alex Hales

Alex Hales is written off because…he’s not Australian.

 

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Preferably openers but at least Top three

All of the five winners were openers and only Pietersen, Nic Maddison and Jordan Silk batted at three. Again, it makes perfect sense. Openers are the only ones guaranteed a bat and in cases where they’re chasing a low score, batting outside the opening spots could mean you don’t bat at all or don’t have the chance to get to a decent score. It also means you can take advantage of the Powerplay overs where scoring boundaries is easier.

Players to rule out: Callum Ferguson (23.0), Josh Philippe (26.0), Ashton Turner (34.0).

 

 

Need to play enough matches 

If you’re in the Australian Test side, you’ll miss three weeks of the Big Bash. If you’re in the ODI side you’ll miss about two weeks, so three or four matches depending on your team’s schedule.

In either case, that’s simply too much. Even if you were expected to score ‘just’ 25 runs per game, that’s still  about 100 runs you’re missing out on simply because you’re not on the field. Players like David Warner and Steve Smith who are integral part of both teams will hardly play any Bash cricket at all. Usman Khawaja is unlikely to be recalled to the Test side but could yet be part of the side travelling to India for the ODI series because he’s a good player of spin. So we have to rule him out as well. Here’s a guide to which Australian are likely to miss out on Bash duty due to international commitments.

Players to rule out (Test players): Matthew Wade (67.0), Travis Head (81.0), Marnus Labuschagne (101.0).

 

 

Labuschagne will be on Test match duty for the first three weeks.

 

 

Players to rule out (ODI players). Usman Khawaja (11.0), Aaron Finch (26.0), Alex Carey (26.0), Mitch Marsh (41.0), Glenn Maxwell (51.0).

 

It’s also worth noting that Tom Banton will play the first half of the season for the Brisbane Heat before being replaced by AB de Villiers (81.0). Given they’ll each only play half of the matches, they obviously need to be ignored as well.

Players to rule out: AB de Villiers (81.0), Tom Banton.

 

Something else interesting to note is that you don’t need to go on and win the tournament to be in with a shout. Only Klinger won it as well as being Big Bash top runscorer and only Short in 2017-18 was runner-up. Given it’s such a wide open tournament anyway, we shouldn’t exclude anyone just because they play for an unfancied team.

 

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Big Bash top runscorer betting: who are we left with?

 

D’Arcy Short is an obvious place to start, mostly because he’s won it in the past two editions.  He’s not eliminated because of any of the factors listed below. He’s an opener and pretty unlikely to play in the ODI Series so could easily play every game of the tournament. He also has the advantage of playing for a side whose home matches take place at a high-scoring ground. Proof of that is the fact that last year Matthew Wade, his opening partner and skipper at the Hobart Hurricanes, finished second on the Big Bash top runscorer’s list. But then again, he’s the 7.0 favourite on Betfair so it’s no surprise he makes our shortlist.

Marcus Stoinis is an interesting one. He’s the third favourite at 13.0 but at the moment we’re not sure if he’s going to open for the Melbourne Stars. He had a spell as an opener at the back end of last season but right now, we don’t know who is likely to open for the Stars. Ben Dunk will probably do so but the likes of Nic Maddison and Pete Handscomb may fancy a shot at opening as well. Meaning that if Stoinis bats at his more usual position of five or six, he’s awful value.

 

Melbourne Stars can win the 2019/20 Big Bash.

Stoinis (right) might open or…he might not.

 

 

Big Bash Top Runscorer betting:  Who tick all the boxes. 

 

 

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Odds with Betfair Sportsbook

 

D’Arcy Short (Hobart Hurricanes) @ 7.0

Shaun Marsh (Melbourne Renegades) @ 8.0

Chris Lynn (Brisbane Heat) @ 11.0 

Jake Weatherald (Adelaide Strikers) @ 18.0

Daniel Hughes (Sydney Sixers) @ 18.0

Ben Dunk (Melbourne Stars) @ 34.0

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