Let’s give some T20 Blast tips ahead of Finals Day at Edgbaston on Saturday.
We’ve already looked at the four semi-finalists, their skippers and key men in this piece so no need to go into why Essex rate the value bet to go all the way again here. But here’s some more T20 Blast Betting tips and prices you should know about.
Best T20 Blast Tips
All about the North
If we’re going to trust the history books, we might as well give up on our bet on Essex right away. That’s because all of the last six editions of the T20 Blast have been won by a side classed as from the Northern Division. So, most recent first, that would be: Worcestershire, Nottinghamshire, Northants, Lancashire, Birmingham, Northants. You’d have to go back to 2012 for the last time a Southern side won, which was when Hampshire took it.
Following that rationale, we should be backing anyone other than Essex (!) seeing as the other three teams: Derbyshire, Worcestershire and Nottinghamshire, are all from the north. Essex by the way are 1.69 to beat Derbyshire in the second semi-final with 10CRIC.
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No bias regarding semi-finals
If you’re looking for an edge regarding the side winning the first or second semi going onto win the final, there isn’t one.
Of the last seven finals, four have been won by the side winning the first semi and three by the side winning the second. There is however an interesting symmetry for those who believe in that sort of thing.
For the past seven years it’s gone (most recent first): winner of 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st. That would suggest the winner might come from the second this year though of course that pattern could well be pure coincidence. If it isn’t and you want to pay attention to it while sticking to the theory that Northern teams are the ones to go with, then that means siding with Derbyshire at 5.0 with Betfair Sportsbook.
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Moeen Ali with every chance of man-of-the-match award
As we know from our many studies into who gets the man-of-the-match award, he comes from the winning side about 99% of the time.
So given that it’s virtually a 50/50 match- ok Notts are slight favourites at 1.8- one can make a pretty good case for Moeen Ali walking away with the man of the match award.
The first reason is that he’s clearly one of the four or five proper class acts in that game, the others being Alex Hales, Dan Christian and Wayne Parnell.
But when we talk about getting two bites of the cherry- being MOM either for work done with bat or ball- he’s the only real one who can really pull it off. Even Christian is unlikely to get enough of a bat to make a real impact. Ali on the other hand is almost certain to bowl his four overs and bat in the Top 3.
He’ll have every chance, not least because he’s been in tremendous form of late. His last four scores in the competition read: 85 not out, 23, 51 and 121 not out. So yes, the bookies are well aware of what he can do and that’s why he’s the favourite at 7.5 with Unibet to be man-of-the-match in the first sem-final against Derbyshire. But just because he’s favourite doesn’t mean he’s a bad bet.
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Wood real value for Notts top bowler
If you’re going by how many wickets everyone has taken in the T20 Blast so far, then look no further than Harry Gurney for Notts top bowler at 11/5 with Betfair Sportsbook. He has 20 while the next best has 11. But there’s more to a proper analysis than that.
Gurney has played 11 matches. So have Dan Christian (7 wickets) and Samit Patel (6 wickets) but they’ve bowled 36 and just 18 overs respectively compared to Gurney’s 40. We can dismiss Patel at 5.0 because he’s been bowling plenty of overs and simply not taking many wickets. And we can dismiss Christian as well at 7.0 because he doesn’t bowl enough overs; he’s not even bowling two a game so assuming that continues, he won’t have enough of a chance to be in contention.
Going back to Patel, his strike rate (balls per wicket) is 36. Gurney’s is an excellent 12.0– a wicket every two overs. But look at Luke Wood; he’s taken 11 wickets from just 8 games and has a strike rate of 12.9, just marginally higher than Gurney’s but there’s really nothing in it. He’s a much bigger price at 4.5 than Gurney and therefore a strong choice as the last of or T20 Blast tips.
T20 Blast Tips:
Back Moeen Ali to be man-of-the-match in Worcestershire v Nottinghsmashire @ 7.5 with Unibet
Back Luke Wood to be Notts Top bowler @ 4.5 with Betfair Sportsbook