Researching your Live Bet selections
Researching bets that you intend to place on Live Betting (or in-play betting) can be even more profitable than doing so pre-match. That said, the principal is the same.
The best way of going about it involves looking for patterns. Just like looking at how many clean sheets a particular side has kept at home so far in a particular season will help you assesses whether the odds on keeping another clean sheet are favourable or whether the odds on offer about the home team’s chances of winning the match are attractive in the pre-match odds, it’s the same with Live Betting.
Through a careful study of the stats, you can find patterns in how a team’s matches tend to go. Does the team normally go on the attack very early and score early? Alternatively, are they usually conservative for the first half? Or do they actually start matches poorly before improving as the game progresses? Having this information onside can help you profit on Live Betting because you can secure better odds during the match than you’d get pre-match on a particular event happening. Here are some case studies.
In-play betting strategy
Crystal Palace comeback Kings
Just because Crystal Palace start matches poorly and concede the first goal, that’s not to say they’ll lose the match. Far from it.
Between the end of August and the end of September in the 2016/17 season, Palace conceded the first goal of the match in the Premier League on three occasions but didn’t lose any of those matches. At home to Bournemouth they went a goal down early on before a 90th minute equaliser saved them. Away to Everton, they also went a goal down in the first half before also going on to draw 1-1.
But best of all was their turnaround at Sunderland. 2-0 down after 60 minutes, they ended up winning 3-2 with a Christian Benteke winner in the 90th minute.
Live Betting Tip: These stats are from a couple of years ago but the principle of discovering valuable trends is priceless during any season. Look for definite patterns in how matches unfold for a particular team. If you’re armed with this knowledge when the match gets under way, you’ll be able to place in-play bets at value odds knowing the stats suggest you’re onto a good thing.
Wait till half-time before backing over 2.5 goals in Man City home games
Between late November 2017 and mid-February 2018, Man City played nine home matches across all competitions. Each of those matches had over 2.5 goals in it. Nothing too remarkable about that at first glance. After all, City have huge attacking threats in the form of Sergio Aguero, Gabriel Jesus, David Silva, Kevin de Bruyne and Raheem Sterling, to name but a few. They’re also not the best in defence so it’s not that surprising their home games are high-scoring.
But a closer inspection of those matches shows that in eight out of those nine, there was just one goal or no goals at half-time. Knowing the goals tend to come in the second-half gives you an obvious but effective in-play betting strategy: wait for the half-time whistle and bet on over 2.5 goals.
At worst, you’ll get a bigger price on over 2.5 goals than what you would have got before the start of the match. At best, it will be considerably bigger if it’s 0-0 at half-time. Nine matches is a pretty decent sample so even if it’s goalless at half-time you can be pretty confident that the match will pass the three goals barrier eventually.
Betfair the obvious place for live betting
You can read plenty more about the virtues of Betfair elsewhere on the site. Betting Maestro is a big fan. But for the purposes of this section, the Maestro will limit himself to saying that if you’re going to take live betting on football seriously, Betfair is the place to do it. The main reasons being that trading makes a lot more mathematical sense that placing several bets on different outcomes on the same market to ensure you get a profit.
Firstly, because trading means that you don’t need to have additional funds in your account each time you place a new bet – if you’ve got yourself in a preferable position you can use your own money from the first bet(s) to place additional ones on contrasting outcomes. And secondly because there’s far less of a ‘house’ margin when trading on Betfair than when betting with a Sportsbook.
Betting Maestro Top Tip:
The best strategy when betting live on football, or better still trading on it, is to combine what you know pre-match with what you’re seeing in-play.
Use your pre-match research to find patterns in terms of what has happened time and time again in the past. Then use what your eyes are telling you by watching the game to determine whether those stats will hold up or whether the game will pan out very differently this time.
When both your research and your eyes (and the in-play stats) are telling you the same thing, then it’s time to place your bet.